Odds of Odd Even

So finally Odd-Even rule on private vehicles was launched on 1^st January 2016. As per this rule cars’ numbers ending at 1,3,5,7 and 9 will run on Odd days and cars’ numbers ending  at 2,4,6 and 8 will run on even days. Delhi which has become a Gas chamber due to pollution actually needed something to curb pollution but will this Odd even formula will get the expected success? However I really wants this to be successful but following factors can contribute towards its failure.

To start with, Major pollution sources in Delhi aren’t clear yet. Construction, Factories, Trucks coming during midnight are one of them. Ironically, none of these will be covered in the odd-even plan. Without a clear estimate of how much private vehicles contribute to Delhi’s pollution, making half of them sit idle at all times seems like an ill-conceived idea.

Next, we just don’t have the enough traffic police manpower to track adherence. Odd even supporters may believe that people will be good. However, if we were good people, all of India’s schemes would have worked. There will be legal ways around the scheme (buy another car for the number plate, often an old, second hand, more polluting one) or illegal ways (fake an emergency certificate, bribe the cop, take a chance, switch the number plate). After the initial euphoria and media trials around the scheme dies, Delhiites will figure out a way to get their cars on the road.

For those who follow the rules, they will end up burdening the already choked public transport system even more. Autos will either not be available, or will overcharge. Metros, already packed, will become worse. Delhi doesn’t have public transport like Paris and Singapore (where such measures were applied, albeit only on a temporary basis).

Some supporters of this are giving examples of Beijing wherein this kind of formula has already got success and they keep on trying it at regular intervals. But please note that, Beijing is not a democracy, and the plan fits into what an authoritarian state would do. In democratic India we must think a hundred times before we steal our people’s freedom. Hence comparison of both cities is irrational.

Solutions do exist. The long-term solution is to create more world-class cities like Delhi, to avoid large influx of people coming to Delhi for jobs etc. Delhi also needs a much better public transport system. In the short term, we can restructure offices with lower taxes to have different work hours, which will balance out the traffic and make it move faster. As per a study, st car stuck in a traffic jam pollutes much more than a car that quickly finishes its journey. We can also raise taxes on purchase of new cars (or limit their numbers) Taxi sharing apps must be endorsed on a large scale so that they can go a long way in reducing cars on the roads.

AAP deserves credit for trying to do something about Delhi’s pollution. Delhi deserves better air but it also deserves more sensible solutions to achieve the same.